It’s incredibly early for crypto.
Yes, a lot has happened so far. But that’s nothing compared to the future.
Nobody really knows how everything will play out.
So much more awaits.
It’s exciting. It’s scary. It’s mysterious.
Which is why I love to hear predictions. And I heard a bunch of them a couple of weeks ago at the Crypto Invest Summit in Los Angeles.
These predictions were particularly intriguing because they came from crypto insiders and thought leaders and world-renowned investors… people like uber-successful investor Tim Draper, his son Adam and Pantera founder and CEO Dan Morehead.
Their insider status doesn’t make their predictions right, of course. But when people whose personal fortunes and credibility ride on their vision of how crypto will play out, I certainly listen.
I can’t include ALL the predictive statements I heard here. What follows is a quick analysis of my seven favorites. I also score these predictions on their likelihood of coming true. (The scale is from 1 to 10. A 10 is a no-brainer, sure to happen. A 1 means it’s not happening, no way, no how.)
- Bitcoin will be worth $225K by 2022. – Tim DraperTim is just a little bullish on bitcoin, wouldn’t you say? He is fond of saying that crypto and bitcoin are the future while fiat is the past. Earlier this year, he told TheStreet that bitcoin will hit $250K by 2022. So while he’s pulled back at the margins, he is the epitome of the all-in bitcoin investor. He made a big investment in bitcoin when it was valued around $6.My take: A little too soon, Tim. Bitcoin will zoom past $200K around 2025 or 2026.
Score: 7.0
- In the next year, there will be three apps that will use crypto and blockchain and you won’t even realize it. – Adam DraperSticking with the Draper clan, we have this quote from Adam, who was an early investor in Coinbase. The idea that crypto will have arrived when it’s being used and we don’t even know it was a common refrain I heard at the conference.My take: OK, I nominate banking, peer-to-peer payments and the next food scare as the use cases.
Score: 9.0
- It will take another nine to 12 months for the SEC to issue rules. – Dan MoreheadThat would mean sometime late next year for something that needs to be done today. Shoot.My Take: I’ve gone on record saying it will happen the first half of next year, if not sooner. This was not exactly music to my ears. But the SEC attaches much more value to getting it done right than getting it done quickly.
Score: 8.0
- It will be another 10 years before bitcoin is used as money. – Dan MoreheadLots of things need to happen first. Bitcoin will need to stabilize. Hacks need to stop completely. Bitcoin has to make a huge leap in transaction speed. And bitcoin has to enjoy mass adoption.My take: A decade for this to happen seems about right. What doesn’t need to occur? Fiat going belly-up. Bitcoin can and will coexist with the dollar and other fiat currencies for a long time.
Score: 9.5
- Healthcare and government are two of the ripest areas for crypto disruption. – Tim DraperIt’s true, as Tim points out, that those two sectors are incredibly inefficient and costly. But, in practical terms, they’re also resistant to disruption in the short term. Both areas are governed by a bureaucracy and hidebound regulatory culture that favors the status quo and is slow to adopt new tech and adapt to current realities.My take: Disruption will happen in these two areas, but later as opposed to sooner.
Score: 6.0
- Interoperability will drive future progress. – Crystal Rose, founder of SENSEThis is one of the major hurdles several people at the conference mentioned. Users – companies and individuals – will not tolerate using multiple crypto platforms to get tasks done.My take: Kudos to Crystal and others for staring reality in the face. But demerits for not offering a timeline. So I will. It’s five years away from happening and making an impact… and it’ll be 10 years before all the bugs are worked out and interoperability is no longer an issue.
Score: 10.0
- In the future, everything will be on a single financial infrastructure. – Adam DraperHe’s talking about a blockchain-based financial infrastructure, of course.My take: The ultimate interoperable global financial blockchain system. And it’s only 15 to 25 years off.
Score: 10.0
Good investing,
Andy Gordon